Enhancing the usability of weather radar data for the statistical analysis of extreme precipitation events

[摘要] Spatially explicit quantification on design storms is essentialfor flood risk assessment and planning. Due to the limited temporal dataavailability from weather radar data, design storms are usually estimated on the basis of rainfall records of a few precipitation stations only that have a substantially long time coverage. To achieve a regional picture, these station-based estimates are spatially interpolated, incorporating a large source of uncertainty due to the typical low station density, in particular for short event durations. In this study we present a method to estimate spatially explicit designstorms with a return period of up to 100 years on the basis of statistically extended weather radar precipitation estimates, based on the ideas of regional frequency analyses and subsequent bias correction. Associated uncertainties are quantified using an ensemble-sampling approach and event-based bootstrapping. With the resulting dataset, we compile spatially explicit design storms forvarious return periods and event durations for the federal state of BadenWürttemberg, Germany. We compare our findings with two referencedatasets based on interpolated station estimates. We find that thetransition in the spatial patterns of the design storms from a rather random (short-duration events, 15 min) to a more structured, orographically influenced pattern (long-duration events, 24 h) seems to be much more realistic in the weather-radar-based product. However, the absolute magnitude of the design storms, although bias-corrected, is still generally lower in the weather radar product, which should be addressed in future studies in more detail.

[学科分类] 妇产科学