Cooperation under conflict: participatory hydrological modeling for science policy dialogues for the Aculeo Lake

[摘要] Hydrological modeling tools can support collaborative decision processes by visually displaying hydrological systems connections, uncertainties, as well as conflicting preferences over water management strategies. Nevertheless, many challenges remain in the real application of these technical tools to successfully implement, capture, and communicate with non-experts the complexities of coupled human hydrological systems. A 5-step process shows how a WEAP-based hydrological study aiming to explorethe disappearance of a 12 km 2 lake in the Aculeo basin in Chile wastransformed into a multiple question-driven sociohydrological modelingprocess to help answer the diversity of questions instigating conflict.Collaboration allowed construction of a surface–groundwater hydrological model that responded to local stakeholders' uncertainties. While testing a subset of socially accepted management strategies under two climate changescenarios, combining the strategies allows recovering up to half the lakewater volume. However, the 5-step participatory modeling process alsoshows how the increasing social–environmental conflicts over the causes and effects of the water scarcity are challenging barriers to overcome withmodeling tools. As presented in this article, although flexible approachesand research agendas could better support the exploration of synergiestowards collaboration and production of useful and socially acceptablehydrological models, there are still value-driven aspects of watermanagement that need to be explored to better support science policydialogues.

[学科分类] 妇产科学