Multi-hazard susceptibility mapping of cryospheric hazards in a high-Arctic environment: Svalbard Archipelago

[摘要] The Svalbard Archipelago represents the northernmostplace on Earth where cryospheric hazards, such as thaw slumps (TSs) andthermo-erosion gullies (TEGs) could take place and rapidly develop under theinfluence of climatic variations. Svalbard permafrost is specificallysensitive to rapidly occurring warming, and therefore, a deeper understandingof TSs and TEGs is necessary to understand and foresee the dynamics behindlocal cryospheric hazards' occurrences and their global implications. Wepresent the latest update of two polygonal inventories where the extent ofTSs and TEGs is recorded across Nordenskiöld Land (Svalbard Archipelago),over a surface of approximately 4000 km 2 . This area was chosen becauseit represents the most concentrated ice-free area of the SvalbardArchipelago and, at the same time, where most of the current humansettlements are concentrated. The inventories were created through the visualinterpretation of high-resolution aerial photographs as part of our ongoingeffort toward creating a pan-Arctic repository of TSs and TEGs. Overall, wemapped 562 TSs and 908 TEGs, from which we separately generated twosusceptibility maps using a generalised additive model (GAM) approach,under the assumption that TSs and TEGs manifest across Nordenskiöld Land,according to a Bernoulli probability distribution. Once themodelling results were validated, the two susceptibility patterns were combined into thefirst multi-hazard cryospheric susceptibility map of the area. The twoinventories are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.945348 (Nicu et al., 2022a)and https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.945395 (Nicu et al., 2022b).

[学科分类] 眼科学