Poisson regression model with change points

[摘要] There are many different fields the change point analysis arises. In those cases, the main problem is locating the unknown change points. The aim of this study is to detect location and time of change point in Poisson regression model. We assume for years before and after the change point , then observation  has a Poisson distribution with parameters , respectively. We used several methods for estimation change point in real mortality data by assume Poisson regression model. Using two simulated and real data analysis showed that the change point has been occurred in year 1993 and this confirmed by all methods. Our findings have shown that the change pattern of mortality trend in Iran is related to improvement of health indicators and decreasing mortality rate in Iran.

[学科分类] 外科医学

[关键词] Change point;Poisson regression;Mortality index;Likelihood ratio;Vital statistics.