REVIEW AND COMPARISON OF THE DEMAND ANALYSISMETHODS OF MARITIME EMERGENCY RESOURCES

[摘要] The demand analysis method of maritime emergency resources is the key technology topromote a reasonable emergency resource allocation during maritime emergencymanagement. It is widely used to improve the efficiency of maritime emergency rescue andreduce the loss of maritime accidents. However, it requires a scientific and effective methodof the demand analysis of maritime emergency resources. This paper aims to analyze theunderlying modeling paradigms and to assess the extent to which the demand analysismethods of maritime emergency resources can meet the requirements. Focusing on thedemand analysis methods, this paper provides a broad overview of the current literature onmaritime emergency resources of the last decades, by considering the models’ purposes,theoretical frameworks, factors, and outputs. The results indicate that the existing methodscan be classified into three concepts: the linear regression theory, Back Propagation (BP)Neural Network, and Case-based Reasoning (CBR) technology. Combined with thecharacteristics of China's maritime emergency management field, the interaction betweentheoretical framework and applications is not sufficiently understood and thus needs to befurther studied. Being familiar with knowledge gaps acts as a catalyst for further research onscientific and efficient demand analysis methods of maritime emergency resources in variousnavigation conditions.

[学科分类] 工程和技术（综合）

[关键词] Maritime traffic accident;Maritime emergency resource;Demandprediction;The demand analysis method