Predicting Customer Lifetime Value --- 2008 DMEF Customer Lifetime Value

[摘要] We describe the 2008 DMEF (Direct Marketing Educational Foundation) Customer Lifetime Value Modeling Competition, which the HPLabs team consisting of Zainab Jamal and Alex Zhang won Task 2 (out of 3 tasks). We present our approach for predicting individual donor's total gift amount over a two-year target period. We divide the donors into 8 segments; for each segment, we fit a logit model for predicting the probability of giving, and a log-linear model for predicting the amount of gifts conditional on a donor giving. We found that recency, frequency, and first gift amount are good predictors of the probability of giving, while time-weighted total gift amount in the past years is a good predictor for future gift amount.

[发布机构] HP Development Company

[学科分类] 计算机科学（综合）

[关键词] Lifetime value (LTV);Logit models;Linear models;Regression Tree;Recency;Frequency;and Monetary (RFM).