Bayesian methods for estimating the reliability in complex hierarchical networks (interim report).

[摘要] Current work on the Integrated Stockpile Evaluation (ISE) project is evidence of Sandia's commitment to maintaining the integrity of the nuclear weapons stockpile. In this report, we undertake a key element in that process: development of an analytical framework for determining the reliability of the stockpile in a realistic environment of time-variance, inherent uncertainty, and sparse available information. This framework is probabilistic in nature and is founded on a novel combination of classical and computational Bayesian analysis, Bayesian networks, and polynomial chaos expansions. We note that, while the focus of the effort is stockpile-related, it is applicable to any reasonably-structured hierarchical system, including systems with feedback.

[发布日期] 2007-05-01

[学科分类] 自然科学（综合）

[关键词] EVALUATION;FEEDBACK;NUCLEAR WEAPONS;POLYNOMIALS;RELIABILITY;STOCKPILES Bayesian statistical decision theory-Mathematical models.;Nuclear weapon stockpile.-Reliability