Bacterial Population Genetics in a Forensic Context

[摘要] This report addresses the recent Department of Homeland Security (DHS) call for a Phase I study to (1) assess gaps in the forensically relevant knowledge about the population genetics of eight bacterial agents of concern, (2) formulate a technical roadmap to address those gaps, and (3) identify new bioinformatics tools that would be necessary to analyze and interpret population genetic data in a forensic context. The eight organisms that were studied are B. anthracis, Y. pestis, F. tularensis, Brucella spp., E. coli O157/H7, Burkholderia mallei, Burkholderia pseudomallei, and C. botulinum. Our study focused on the use of bacterial population genetics by forensic investigators to test hypotheses about the possible provenance of an agent that was used in a crime or act of terrorism. Just as human population genetics underpins the calculations of match probabilities for human DNA evidence, bacterial population genetics determines the level of support that microbial DNA evidence provides for or against certain well-defined hypotheses about the origins of an infecting strain. Our key findings are: (1) Bacterial population genetics is critical for answering certain types of questions in a probabilistic manner, akin (but not identical) to 'match probabilities' in DNA forensics. (2) A basic theoretical framework for calculating likelihood ratios or posterior probabilities for forensic hypotheses based on microbial genetic comparisons has been formulated. This 'inference-on-networks' framework has deep but simple connections to the population genetics of mtDNA and Y-STRs in human DNA forensics. (3) The 'phylogeographic' approach to identifying microbial sources is not an adequate basis for understanding bacterial population genetics in a forensic context, and has limited utility, even for generating 'leads' with respect to strain origin. (4) A collection of genotyped isolates obtained opportunistically from international locations augmented by phylogenetic representations of relatedness will not and enzootic outbreaks noted through international outbreak surveillance systems, and 'representative' genetic sequences from each outbreak. (5) Interpretation of genetic comparisons between an attack strain and reference strains requires a model for the network structure of maintenance foci, enzootic outbreaks, and human outbreaks of that disease, coupled with estimates of mutational rate constants. Validation of the model requires a set of sequences from exemplary outbreaks and laboratory data on mutation rates during animal passage. The necessary number of isolates in each validation set is determined by disease transmission network theory, and is based on the 'network diameter' of the outbreak. (6) The 8 bacteria in this study can be classified into 4 categories based on the complexity of the transmission network structure of their natural maintenance foci and their outbreaks, both enzootic and zoonotic. (7) For B. anthracis, Y. pestis, E. coli O157, and Brucella melitensis, and their primary natural animal hosts, most of the fundamental parameters needed for modeling genetic change within natural host or human transmission networks have been determined or can be estimated from existing field and laboratory studies. (8) For Burkholderia mallei, plausible approaches to transmission network models exist, but much of the fundamental parameterization does not. In addition, a validated high-resolution typing system for characterizing genetic change within outbreaks or foci has not yet been demonstrated, although a candidate system exists. (9) For Francisella tularensis, the increased complexity of the transmission network and unresolved questions about maintenance and transmission suggest that it will be more complex and difficult to develop useful models based on currently available data. (10) For Burkholderia pseudomallei and Clostridium botulinum, the transmission and maintenance networks involve complex soil communities and metapopulations about which very little is known. It is not clear that these pathogens can be brought into the inference-on-networks framework without additional conceptual advances. (11) For all 8 bacteria some combination of field studies, computational modeling, and laboratory experiments are needed to provide a useful forensic capability for bacterial genetic inference.

[发布日期] 2009-11-02

[学科分类] 生物科学（综合）

[关键词] ANIMALS;BACTERIA;BRUCELLA;CLOSTRIDIUM BOTULINUM;COMMUNITIES;CRIME;DISEASES;DNA;GENETICS;HUMAN POPULATIONS;MAINTENANCE;MUTATIONS;ORIGIN;PATHOGENS;SECURITY;SOILS;STRAINS;VALIDATION