Low Probability Tail Event Analysis and Mitigation in the BPA Control Area

[摘要] This report investigated the uncertainties with the operations of the power system and their contributions to tail events, especially under high penetration of wind. A Bayesian network model is established to quantify the impact of these uncertainties on system imbalance. The framework is presented for a decision support tool, which can help system operators better estimate the need for balancing reserves and prepare for tail events.

[发布日期] 2010-10-31

[学科分类] 电力

[关键词] MITIGATION;POWER SYSTEMS;PROBABILITY Electric Power;Wind Generation;Bayesian Net;Tail Event;Decision Support