Methods for accurate evaluation of population abundance from ecological data

[摘要] An accurate evaluation of total population density is required in many ecological and biological field. To protect crops from pest attacks, the population density of pests must be evaluated adequately. Accurate information obtained as a result of trapping in ecological monitoring is beneficial for decision-making purposes when implementing a control action. In pest monitoring, a classic technique of evaluating density based on a statistical method may result in poor accuracy. Accuracy can be optimised by applying alternative numerical integration methods to the problem. We explain how insufficient information regarding population density negatively affects the accuracy of estimation. Consequently, a coarse grid problem arises where the numerical integration methods are no longer valid. The evaluation of integration error is now a random variable and the probabilistic approach is used, due to the uncertainty in sampling data. In this thesis several population models have been considered to explain that the value of correlation coefficient on a coarse sampling grid is lost even if the true value is close to one. Phenomenon of ghost synchronization has been observed when the value of correlation coefficient on a coarse sampling grid is close to one but in reality the dynamics are not correlated.

[发布机构] University:University of Birmingham;Department:School of Mathematics

[关键词] Q Science;QA Mathematics