Monetary policy and the role of exchange rate: the case of Jordan

[摘要] This thesis aimed at investigating the impact of changes in the exchange rate on the demand for money and the trade balance in Jordan. Using Johansen (1991 and 1995) approach for cointegration analysis and the equilibrium-correction model (ECM), we examined the existence of stable long-run relationships for the demand for money and the demand for exports and imports. Using the VAR analysis, we analyzed the potential channels of monetary policy transmission mechanism as a vehicle to evaluate the efficiency of monetary policy. A stable long-run relationship has been found for the narrowly defined money which is found positively related to domestic income and the exchange rate and negatively related to domestic real interest rate and foreign interest rate. A stable long-run relationship was also found for the demand of exports and imports. The volume of exports is positively related to income in the trade partner countries and negatively related to exports relative price. Similarly the volume of imports is positively related to domestic income and negatively related to imports relative price. The analysis of monetary policy transmission mechanisms revealed that actions of monetary policy in Jordan has little impact on either the channels of monetary transmission or on the ultimate targets of monetary policy.

[发布机构] University:University of Birmingham;Department:Birmingham Business School, Department of Economics

[关键词] H Social Sciences;HF Commerce