Study on Electricity Business Expansion and Electricity Sales Based on Seasonal Adjustment

[摘要] [1] proposed a novel analysis and forecast method of electricity business expansion based on Seasonal Adjustment, we extend this work to include the effect the micro and macro aspects, respectively. From micro aspect, we introduce the concept of load factor to forecast the stable value of electricity consumption of single new consumer after the installation of new capacity of the high-voltage transformer. From macro aspects, considering the growth of business expanding is also stimulated by the growth of electricity sales, it is necessary to analyse the antecedent relationship between business expanding and electricity sales. First, forecast electricity consumption of customer group and release rules of expanding capacity, respectively. Second, contrast the degree of fitting and prediction accuracy to find out the antecedence relationship and analyse the reason. Also, it can be used as a contrast to observe the influence of customer group in different ranges on the prediction precision. Finally, Simulation results indicate that the proposed method is accurate to help determine the value of expanding capacity and electricity consumption.

[发布机构] Key Laboratory of Power System Intelligent Dispatch and Control, Ministry of Education, Shandong University, Jinan; 250061, China^1;State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Maintenance Branch Company, Nanjing, China^2;Economic and Technology Research Institute of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company, Jinan, China^3

[效力级别] 电工学

[关键词] Degree of fitting;Electricity business;Electricity sales;Electricity-consumption;High voltage transformers;Prediction accuracy;Prediction precision;Seasonal adjustments