Wind power forecasting: IEA Wind Task 36 & future research issues

[摘要] This paper presents the new International Energy Agency Wind Task 36 on Forecasting, and invites to collaborate within the group. Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Forecasting for Wind Energy tries to organise international collaboration, among national meteorological centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, MetOffice, met.no, DMI,...), operational forecaster and forecast users. The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions. As first results, an overview of current issues for research in short-term forecasting of wind power is presented.

[发布机构] DTU Wind Energy, Risø, Frederiksborgvej 399, Roskilde; 4000, Denmark^1;Department of Energy, Wind and Water Power Program, 1000 Independence Ave. SW, Washington; DC; 20585, United States^2;Deutscher Wetterdienst, Frankfurter Str. 135, Offenbach; D-63067, Germany^3;Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Boulevard, MSIN K9-30, Richland; WA; 99352, United States^4;DTU Elektro, Ørsteds Plads, Lyngby; 2800 Kgs., Denmark^5;National Renewable Energy Laboratory, MS ESIF200, 15013 Denver West Parkway, Golden; CO; 80401, United States^6;MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, Centre PERSEE, CS 10207, 1 Rue Claude Daunesse, Sophia Antipolis Cedex; 06904, France^7;Vattenfall AB, Jupitervej 6, Kolding; DK-6000, Denmark^8;WEPROG Aps, Willemoesgade 15B, Assens; 5610, Denmark^9

[关键词] Distributed information;International collaborations;International energy agency;Numerical weather prediction models;Operational forecasters;Probabilistic forecasts;Wind power forecasting;Wind power predictions