Cross-border financial linkages and international financial contagion: an empirical study of East Asia during the 2007-2011 global financial crisis

[摘要] Motivated by the global financial market turbulence in 2007-2011 and the gaps from the literature, this thesis presents an econometric assessment of different transmission mechanisms that propagated and amplified shocks from advanced economies to East Asia. The asset price channel is investigated with MS-VAR model and multivariate unconditional correlation tests. The recursive bivariate probit models are applied to test the liquidity shock transmission via the sudden stop in international lending. The second round effects are examined with partial adjustment models and system GMM estimation. The econometric procedure and testing approach bring about novel results from superior estimation techniques and handle several statistical problems such as heteroskedasticity, non-linearity, endogeneity, omitted variables, simultaneous equations and sample selection bias.The main finding of the thesis is that despite relatively sound fundamentals and limited exposure to structured credit products, East Asia could not totally decouple from the global financial crisis. Specifically, the asset price channels propagated volatility spillovers from the US and Europe to East Asian equity, foreign exchange and CDS markets. While international volatility spillovers were mainly caused by fundamental links, international behaviour during the shocks intensified the regional linkages and generated contagion effect. There was also contagion evidence associated with the sudden stop in international lending which facilitated the transmission of liquidity tensions in the interbank markets. Finally, contagion was magnified by the second round effects, defined as the feedback loops from the sudden changes in macro-financial conditions which caused adverse adjustment in bank performance. These findings have useful implications for international investors and policy authorities regarding to portfolio diversification and systematic risk containment.

[发布机构] University:University of Birmingham;Department:Birmingham Business School

[关键词] D History General and Old World;DS Asia