Self-exciting point process in modeling earthquake occurrences

[摘要] In this paper, we present a procedure for modeling earthquake based on spatial-temporal point process. The magnitude distribution is expressed as truncated exponential and the event frequency is modeled with a spatial-temporal point process that is characterized uniquely by its associated conditional intensity process. The earthquakes can be regarded as point patterns that have a temporal clustering feature so we use self-exciting point process for modeling the conditional intensity function. The choice of main shocks is conducted via window algorithm by Gardner and Knopoff and the model can be fitted by maximum likelihood method for three random variables.

[发布机构] Statistics Study Program, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Jl. Ir. Sutami 36A, Surakarta; 57126, Indonesia^1;Mathematics Study Program, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Jl. Ir. Sutami 36A, Surakarta; 57126, Indonesia^2

[效力级别] 教育 [学科分类] 发展心理学和教育心理学

[关键词] Conditional intensity function;Earthquake occurrences;Magnitude distribution;Maximum likelihood methods;Point patterns;Spatial temporals;Temporal clustering;Window algorithm