Probabilistic Assessment of Severe Accident Consequence in West Bangka

[摘要] Probabilistic dose assessment for severe accident condition is performed for West Bangka area. Source-term from WASH-1400 reactor analysis is used as a conservative release scenario for 1000 MWe PWR. Seven groups of isotopes are used in the simulation based on core inventory and release fraction. Population distribution for Muntok district and the area within a 100 km radius is obtained from 2014 data. Meteorological data is provided through cyclic sampling from a database containing two-year site-specific hourly records in 2014-2015 periods. PC-COSYMA segmented plume dispersion code is used to investigate the assumed the consequence of the accident scenario. The result indicates that early or deterministic effect is important for areas close the release point while long-term or stochastic effect is related to population distribution and covers area of up to 100 km from the release point. The mean annual expected values for early mortality and late mortality for the population within 100 km radius from Muntok site are 2.38×10-4yr-1and 1.33×10-3yr-1respectively.

[发布机构] Center for Energy System Assessment-National Nuclear Energy Agency, Jakarta, Indonesia^1;Physics Department, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia^2

[效力级别] 物理学

[关键词] Accident scenarios;Dose assessments;Meteorological data;Plume dispersion;Probabilistic assessments;Reactor analysis;Release fraction;Stochastic effects