Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission

[摘要] OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

[关键词] Malaria;Anopheles;Plasmodium;Temperature;Socio-economic factors;Epidemiology models;Insect vectors;Host parasite relations;Malária;Anopheles;Plasmodium;Temperatura ambiente;Fatores socioeconômicos;Modelos epidemiológicos;Insetos vetores;Relações hospedeiro-parasita