A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

[摘要] OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

[关键词] Malaria;Mathematical models;Greenhouse effect;Socioeconomic factors;Communicable disease control;Risk;Sensitivity analysis;Malária;Modelos matemáticos;Efeito estufa;Fatores socioeconômicos;Controle de doenças transmissíveis;Risco;Análise de sensitividade