Testing efficacy of monthly forecast application in agrometeorology: Winter wheat phenology dynamic
[摘要] Use of monthly weather forecast as input meteorological data for agrometeorological forecasting, crop modelling and plant protection can foster promising applications in agricultural production. Operational use of monthly or seasonal weather forecast can help farmers to optimize field operations (fertilizing, irrigation) and protection measures against plant diseases and pests by taking full advantage of monthly forecast information in predicting plant development, pest and disease risks and yield potentials few weeks in advance. It can help producers to obtain stable or higher yield with the same inputs and to minimise losses caused by weather. In Central and South-Eastern Europe ongoing climate change lead to shifts of crops phenology dynamics (i.e. in Serbia 4-8 weeks earlier in 2016 than in previous years) and brings this subject in the front of agronomy science and practice. Objective of this study is to test efficacy of monthly forecast in predicting phenology dynamics of different winter wheat varieties, using phenological model developed by Forecasting and Warning Service of Serbia in plant protection. For that purpose, historical monthly forecast for four months (March 1, 2005 - June 30, 2005) was assimilated from ECMWF MARS archive for 50 ensemble members and control run. Impact of different agroecological conditions is tested by using observed and forecasted data for two locations - Rimski Sancevi (Serbia) and Groß-Enzersdorf (Austria).
[发布日期] [发布机构] Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Dositej Obradovic Sq. 8, Novi Sad; 21000, Serbia^1;Forecasting and Warning Service of Serbia in Plant Protection, Temerinsnka 131, Novi Sad; 21000, Serbia^2;Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia, Kneza Viseslava 66, Belgrade; 11000, Serbia^3;Institute of Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Gregor-Mendel-Straße 33, Vienna; 1180, Austria^4
[效力级别] 政治学 [学科分类]
[关键词] Agricultural productions;Agro-ecological conditions;Forecast information;Meteorological data;Phenological model;Plant development;Protection measures;South Eastern Europe [时效性]
