Quick analysis of prediction using TCD (triple combo decline)

[摘要] Usage of decline analysis method commonly is used in the field that has been producing for a long time. Decline analysis is often applied as the first reference in evaluating a field because it does not require much support data and the results are pretty accurate with quick analysis. But often, many users do wrong steps in applying this method. Needs good observation to do the analysis in determining the production term as a baseline for prediction. 3 types of trends which is often used (exponential, hyperbolic, and harmonic), those are the variations of the degree of curvature of the line (b: 0 - 1). All the trends can be categorized into 3 kind; the exponential trend is pessimistic, the harmonic trend is optimistic and hyperbolic among them or moderate. TCD is a method of combining 3 production parameters (flow rate (Qo), Water Cut (WC), and cumulative production (NP).), It is expected to improve the accuracy of results and can control the results of each combination that is applicated. XYZ Field is used as a reference data to see the output of TCD method analysis, this field has 2 wells that producing from kais carbonate platform. The well-A1 was drilled in 2008 (flowrate; 319 BOPD, WC 8%) and the well-A2 was drilled in 2007 (flowrate; 650 BOPD, WC 23%). With the comprehensiveness of production data, is expected to get an overview of the TCD method. Based on the prediction using TCD method which is done in this paper, is obtained that the reserves are not much different. The reserves for well-A1 is 710.9 MSTB and the well-A2 is 33.32 MSTB. According to 3 variations combinations get the difference less than 5%. Determination terms of the production data will make the distinction of the reserves of each variations, needed a good sense and technique to choose the interval data.

[发布机构] SKK Migas, Jl Jendral gatot Subroto No.42, Wisma Mulia Building, Indonesia^1;Trisakti Univeristy, Jl. Kyai Tapa No.1, Grogol Jakarta, Indonesia^2

[效力级别] 矿业工程

[关键词] Carbonate platforms;Cumulative production;Decline analysis methods;Degree of curvature;Exponential trends;Method analysis;Production data;Production parameters