Exploration of government policy structure which support and block energy transition process in indonesia using system dynamics model

[摘要] System dynamic modeling is widely used to predict and simulate the energy system in several countries. One of the applications of system dynamics is to evaluate national energy policy alternatives, and energy efficiency analysis. Using system dynamic modeling, this research aims to evaluate the energy transition policy that has been implemented in Indonesia on the past conversion program of kerosene to LPG for household cook fuel consumption, which considered as successful energy transition program implemented since 2007. This research is important since Indonesia considered not yet succeeded to execute another energy transition program on conversion program of oil fuel to gas fuel for transportation that has started since 1989. The aim of this research is to explore which policy intervention that has significant contribution to support or even block the conversion program. Findings in this simulation show that policy intervention to withdraw the kerosene supply and government push to increase production capacity of the support equipment industries (gas stove, regulator, and LPG Cylinder) is the main influence on the success of the program conversion program.

[发布机构] System Engineering, Modeling and Simulation Laboratory, Departement of Industrial Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Kampus UI Baru, Depok; 16424, Indonesia^1

[效力级别] 生态环境科学

[关键词] Conversion programs;Energy efficiency analysis;Increase productions;National energy policy;Policy intervention;Program conversion;System dynamic models;System dynamics model