Development of multi-model ensemble climate estimates using open-source environment
[摘要] We demonstrate an application of an R open source environment to climatological problems, namely, to the construction of multi-model ensemble estimates. The R ecosystem is used to develop a computation code which automates an ensembling procedure. We apply the code to the CMIP5 runoff data in the Russian territory for a preliminary analysis of the long-term natural variability. It has been found that a multi-model projection demonstrates a non-monotonic behaviour which contradicts the classic "wet getting wetter" pattern, but perfectly corresponds to the long-term natural variability. A detailed analysis of reproducibility of the runoff temporary structure seems to be unavoidable for successful forecasting of the long-term runoff trends.
[发布日期] [发布机构] Moscow Power Engineering Institute, ul. Krasnokazarmennaya 14, Moscow; 111250, Russia^1;A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pyzhevskiy per. 3, Moscow; 119017, Russia^2
[效力级别] 计算机科学 [学科分类]
[关键词] Computation codes;Monotonic behaviour;Multi-model ensemble;Natural variability;Open sources;Preliminary analysis;Reproducibilities;Temporary structures [时效性]
