Assessment of the effect of climate change on water balance of West Siberian Plain based on the Mezentsev model

[摘要] Estimation of the effect of climate change on the water balance and water regime in West Siberian Plain taking into account the feedbacks generated by the change in the landscape characteristics due to changing climate is given. The methodological approach is based on the application of the model of interrelationship between energy and water balance of land surface for determination of the balance characteristics in dependence on the on-site climatic data at the present time and on the predicted near-surface air temperature and atmospheric precipitation over the period 2021 - 2030. It is shown that the projected increase in temperature and evapotranspiration would not lead to the expected decrease in flow depth even in the southern dry regions. At the same time, soil moisture in summer would decrease everywhere. All these cause transformation of the catchment landscape conditions which in turn influences the water storage and water availability at local, catchment-size and regional scales.

[发布机构] Department of Hydrology, Tomsk State University, 36 Lenin Avenue, Tomsk; 634050, Russia^1;Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 10/3 Akademicheskiy Avenue, Tomsk; 634055, Russia^2

[效力级别] 生物科学 [学科分类] 生物科学（综合）

[关键词] Atmospheric precipitation;Balance characteristics;Changing climate;Energy and water balance;Landscape characteristic;Methodological approach;Near surface air temperature;Water availability