Mathematic simulation of mining company's power demand forecast (by example of "Neryungri" coal strip mine)

[摘要] The article covers the aspects of forecasting and consideration of the wholesale market environment in generating the power demand forecast. Major mining companies that operate in conditions of the present day power market have to provide a reliable energy demand request for a certain time period ahead, thus ensuring sufficient reduction of financial losses associated with deviations of the actual power demand from the expected figures. Normally, under the power supply agreement, the consumer is bound to provide a per-month and per-hour request annually. It means that the consumer has to generate one-month-ahead short-term and medium-term hourly forecasts. The authors discovered that empiric distributions of "Yakutugol", Holding Joint Stock Company, power demand belong to the sustainable rank parameter H-distribution type used for generating forecasts based on extrapolation of such distribution parameters. For this reason they justify the need to apply the mathematic rank analysis in short-term forecasting of the contracted power demand of "Neryungri" coil strip mine being a component of the technocenosis-type system of the mining company "Yakutugol", Holding JSC.

[发布机构] Public Limited Company (PLC) Yakutugol' Opencast Coal Mine Neryungrinskii, 3/1, Lenina Av., Neryungri; 678960, Russia^1;Technical Institute (Branch), Northeast Federal University, 16, Kravchenko St., 678960, Russia^2;Far Eastern Federal University (FEFU), 8, Sukhanov St., Vladivostok; 690950, Russia^3;Vladivostok Branch of Russian Customs Academy, 16, Strelkovaya St., Vladivostok; 690034, Russia^4

[效力级别] 电工学

[关键词] Coal strip mines;Distribution parameters;Joint stock companies;Mathematic simulations;Mining companies;Reliable energy;Short-term forecasting;Wholesale markets