An assessment of North Korea's nuclear weapons capabilities

[摘要] In February of 2013, North Korea conducted its third nuclear weapons test. Speculations are that this test was conducted to further develop a warhead small enough to fit on an intercontinental ballistic missile. This test further strained North Korea;;s relationship with the international community. North Korea has continued to make steps towards advancing its military capabilities using nuclear weapons, and has even threatened an attack on U.S. soil. The steps that North Korea are currently taking could have detrimental effects on the stability of the region. The role of enrichment technology in the production of nuclear weapons material and the history of North Korea;;s nuclear program is described. The effect of a nuclear weapons attack on the United States is presented and analyzed. The number of casualties could be or is estimated to be on the order of several thousand people, in addition to the destruction of infrastructure. Although a highly unlikely scenario, these calculations have implications for future policy decisions. This discussion shows the importance of verifying North Korea;;s nuclear program. Verification would facilitate a better relationship between North Korea and the international community. This could lead to economic support and security assurances for North Korea. Furthermore, it would help the United States avoid a potential attack.

[发布机构] Massachusetts Institute of Technology