Dynamic Prediction Model for Multi-influence Factors of Hurricane Intensity

[摘要] In recent years, the global hurricane has intensified, which not only has a certain impact on the climate, but also has a great impact on human living environment and social and economic development. Therefore, the prediction of hurricane intensity plays an extremely important role in current climatic conditions and human development. In order to understand the change of hurricane intensity, the sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, ocean heat content, Coriolis parameters, low-level relative vorticity and other factors are used as related factors affecting hurricane intensity. In this paper, the dynamic weighted evaluation model is combined with the Borda number to establish a hurricane intensity evaluation model, and then the hurricane intensity under the influence of various influencing factors is predicted. At the same time, in order to more clearly reveal the specific impact of various factors on the hurricane, this paper uses the Arcgis platform for mapping, which is conducive to qualitative assessment of the degree of impact.

[发布机构] Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, China^1

[学科分类] 环境科学（综合）

[关键词] Climatic conditions;Dynamic prediction;Evaluation modeling;Hurricane intensity;Qualitative assessments;Sea surface temperature (SST);Social and economic development;Vertical wind shear