Contact Heterogeneity and Phylodynamics: How Contact Networks Shape Parasite Evolutionary Trees

[摘要] The inference of population dynamics from molecular sequence datais becoming an important new method for the surveillance of infectiousdiseases. Here, we examine how heterogeneity in contact shapes thegenealogies of parasitic agents. Using extensive simulations, we findthat contact heterogeneity can have a strong effect on how the structureof genealogies reflects epidemiologically relevant quantities such as theproportion of a population that is infected. Comparing the simulationsto BEAST reconstructions, we also find that contact heterogeneity canincrease the number of sequence isolates required to estimate thesequantities over the course of an epidemic. Our results suggest thatdata about contact-network structure will be required in addition tosequence data for accurate estimation of a parasitic agent's genealogy. We conclude that network models will be important for progress inthis area.

[学科分类] 传染病学