The United Kingdom 2009 Swine Flu Outbreak As Recorded inReal Time by General Practitioners

[摘要] Background. Initially the course of the 2009 swine flupandemic was uncertain and impossible to predict with any confidence. An effective prospective data resource exists in the United Kingdom(UK) that could have been utilized to describe the scope and extent ofthe swine flu outbreak as it unfolded. We describe the 2009 swine fluoutbreak in the UK as recorded daily by general practitioners and thepotential use of this database for real-time tracking of fluoutbreaks.Methods. Using the General PracticeResearch Database, a real-time general practice, electronic database,we estimated influenza incidence from July 1998 to September 2009according to age, region, and calendar time.Results. From 1998 to2008, influenza outbreaks regularly occurred yearly fromOctober to March, but did not typically occur from April to Septemberuntil the swine flu outbreak began in April 2009. The weekly incidencerose gradually, peaking at the end of July, and the outbreak hadlargely dissipated by early September.Conclusions. The UK swine flu outbreak,recorded in real time by a largegroup of general practitioners, was mild and limited in time. Simultaneous online accessseemed feasible andcould have provided additional clinical-based evidence at anearly planning stage of the outbreak.

[学科分类] 传染病学