A Predictive Model for Daily Inoculum Levels ofGibberella zeaein Passo Fundo, Brazil

[摘要] The deposition of spores ofGibberella zeae, the causal agent ofFusariumhead blight of wheat, was monitored during 2008–2011, in Passo Fundo, RS, Brazil. The sampling was carried out in a 31-day period around wheat flowering. The numbers of colonies formed were related to meteorological variables. In this study, a hierarchical autoregressive binary data model was used. The model relates a binary response variable to potential covariates while accounting for dependence over discrete time points. This paper proposes an approach for both model parameter inference and prediction at future time points using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The developed model appeared to have a high degree of accuracy and may have implications in the disease control and risk-management planning.

[学科分类] 农艺学与作物科学