Identifying climatic drivers of tropical forest dynamics

[摘要] In the context of climate change, identifying and thenpredicting the impacts of climatic drivers on tropical forest dynamics isbecoming a matter of urgency. To look at these climateimpacts, we used a coupled model of tropical tree growth and mortality,calibrated with forest dynamic data from the 20-year study site of Paracou,French Guiana, in order to introduce and test a set of climatic variables.Three major climatic drivers were identified through the variable selectionprocedure: drought, water saturation and temperature. Drought decreasedannual growth and mortality rates, high precipitation increased mortalityrates and high temperature decreased growth. Interactions between keyfunctional traits, stature and climatic variables were investigated, showingbest resistance to drought for trees with high wood density and for treeswith small current diameters. Our results highlighted strong long-termimpacts of climate variables on tropical forest dynamics, suggestingpotential deep impacts of climate changes during the next century.

[学科分类] 地球化学与岩石