Carbon Cycle Uncertainty in REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP)

[摘要] Characterisation of estimates of regional carbon budgets and processesis inherently a statistical task.In full form this means that almost all quantities used or produced arerealizations or instances of probability distributions. We usuallycompress the description of these distributions by using some kind oflocation parameter (e.g. the mean) and some measure of spread oruncertainty (e.g.the standard deviation). Characterising and calculating theseuncertainties, and their structure in space and time, is as important as the location parameter, butuncertainties are both hard to calculate and hard to interpret.In this paper we describe the various classes of uncertainty thatarise in a process like RECCAP and describe how they interact in formalestimation procedures. We also point out the impact theseuncertainties will have on the various RECCAP synthesis activities.

[学科分类] 地球化学与岩石