Assessment of possible airborne impact from risk sites: methodology for probabilistic atmospheric studies
[摘要] The main purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for amultidisciplinary nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment, and to testthis methodology through estimation of a nuclear risk to population in theNorthern European countries in case of a severe accident at the nuclear risksites. For assessment of the probabilistic risk and vulnerability, acombination of social-geophysical factors and probabilities are considered.
The main focus of this paper is the description of methodology for evaluationof the atmospheric transport of radioactive releases from the risk siteregions based on the long-term trajectory modeling. The suggested methodologyis given from the probabilistic point of view. The main questions stated are:What are probabilities and times for radionuclide atmospherictransport to different neighbouring countries and territories in case of thehypothetical accidental release at the nuclear risk site? Which geographicalterritories or countries are at the highest risk from the hypotheticalaccidental releases?To answer these questions we suggest applying the following research toolsfor probabilistic atmospheric studies. First tool is atmospheric modellingto calculate multiyear forward trajectories originated over the sites.Second tool is statistical analyses to explore temporal and spatialstructure of calculated trajectories and evaluate different probabilisticimpact indicators: atmospheric transport pathways, airflow, fast transport,typical transport time, maximum possible impact zone, maximum reachingdistance, etc. These indicators are applicable for further GIS-analysis andintegration to estimate regional risk and vulnerability in case ofaccidental releases at the risk sites and for planning the emergencyresponse and preparedness systems.
