A chemistry-transport model simulation of middle atmospheric ozone from 1980 to 2019 using coupled chemistry GCM winds and temperatures

[摘要] A global 40-year simulation from 1980 to 2019 was performed with theFinROSE chemistry-transport model based on the use of coupledchemistry GCM-data. The main focus of our analysis is onclimatological-scale processes in high latitudes. The resultingtrend estimates for the past period (1980–1999) agree well withobservation-based trend estimates. The results for the future period(2000–2019) suggest that the extent of seasonal ozone depletion over bothnorthern and southern high-latitudes has likely reached its maximum.Furthermore, while climate change is expected to cool the stratosphere,this cooling is unlikely to accelerate significantly high latitude ozonedepletion. However, the recovery of seasonal high latitude ozonelosses will not take place during the next 15 years.

[学科分类] 大气科学