[摘要] A synthesis inversion based on the atmospheric zoom model TM5 is used toderive top-down estimates of CH
4 emissions from individual Europeancountries for the year 2001. We employ a model zoom over Europe with1° × 1° resolution that is two-way nested into the global modeldomain (with resolution of 6° × 4°. This approach ensuresconsistent boundary conditions for the zoom domain and thus Europeantop-down estimates consistent with global CH
4 observations. The TM5model, driven by ECMWF analyses, simulates synoptic scale events at mostEuropean and global sites fairly well, and the use of high-frequencyobservations allows exploiting the information content of individualsynoptic events. A detailed source attribution is presented for acomprehensive set of 56 monitoring sites, assigning the atmospheric signalto the emissions of individual European countries and larger global regions.
The available observational data put significant constraints on emissionsfrom different regions. Within Europe, in particular several WesternEuropean countries are well constrained. The inversion results suggest up to50-90% higher anthropogenic CH4 emissions in 2001 for Germany,France and UK compared to reported UNFCCC values (EEA, 2003).A recent revision of the German inventory, however, resulted in an increaseof reported CH4 emissions by 68.5% (EEA, 2004), being now in verygood agreement with our top-down estimate.The top-down estimate for Finland is distinctly smaller than the a priori estimate,suggesting much smaller CH4 emissions from Finnish wetlands thanderived from the bottom-up inventory.The EU-15 totals are relatively close to UNFCCC values (within 4-30%) andappear very robust for different inversion scenarios.
