Global ozone forecasting based on ERS-2 GOME observations

[摘要] The availability of near-real time ozone observations fromsatellite instruments has recently initiated the development of ozone data assimilation systems. In this paper we present theresults of an ozone assimilation and forecasting system, in use since Autumn 2000. The forecasts are produced by an ozonetransport and chemistry model, driven by the operational medium range forecasts of ECMWF. The forecasts are initialised withrealistic ozone distributions, obtained by the assimilation of near-real time total column observations of the GOME spectrometeron ERS-2.The forecast error diagnostics demonstrate that the system produces meaningful total ozone forecasts for up to 6 daysin the extratropics. In the tropics meaningful forecasts of the small anomalies are restricted to shorter periods of about twodays with the present model setup. It is demonstrated that important events, such as the breakup of the South Pole ozone holeand mini-hole events above Europe can be successfully predicted 4--5 days in advance.

[学科分类] 大气科学