The Sicily Channel Regional Model forecasting system: initialboundary conditions sensitivity and case study evaluation

[摘要] The Sicily Channel Regional Model forecasting system was tested usingan optimization package for the initial and lateral boundaryconditions. Spurious high frequency oscillations during the spin-uptime were successfully reduced both in duration and magnitude byoptimizing the time tendency of the free surface elevation using theVariational Initialization and Forcing Platform method developed inthe framework of the Mediterranean Forecasting System Towards theEnvironmental Prediction project. The effect of optimization was mostprofound for the free surface elevation, where all oscillations withperiods shorter than 4 h were suppressed.

The overall forecast skill was assessed on a 5 day case studystarting on 6 April 2005, characterized by a fast passage of a deepeningatmospheric low–pressure field with strong winds and marked winddirection change. We compared the predicted variables within–situ and remotely sensed data. The forecasts of temperature,including the sea surface temperature, and salinity were quitesuccessful, while the forecasted currents, especially within thesurface layer, were not in good agreement with the measurements.

[学科分类] 海洋学与技术