Operational ocean models in the Adriatic Sea: a skill assessment

[摘要] In the framework of the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) project, theperformance of regional numerical ocean forecasting systems is assessed bymeans of model-model and model-data comparison. Three different operationalsystems considered in this study are: the Adriatic REGional Model (AREG);the Adriatic Regional Ocean Modelling System (AdriaROMS) and theMediterranean Forecasting System General Circulation Model (MFS-GCM). AREGand AdriaROMS are regional implementations (with some dedicated variations)of POM and ROMS, respectively, while MFS-GCM is an OPA based system. Theassessment is done through standard scores. In situ and remote sensing dataare used to evaluate the system performance. In particular, a set of CTDmeasurements collected in the whole western Adriatic during January 2006 andone year of satellite derived sea surface temperature measurements (SST)allow to asses a full three-dimensional picture of the operationalforecasting systems quality during January 2006 and to draw some preliminaryconsiderations on the temporal fluctuation of scores estimated on surfacequantities between summer 2005 and summer 2006.

The regional systems share a negative bias in simulated temperature andsalinity. Nonetheless, they outperform the MFS-GCM in the shallowestlocations. Results on amplitude and phase errors are improved in areasshallower than 50 m, while degraded in deeper locations, where major modelsdeficiencies are related to vertical mixing overestimation. In a basin-wideoverview, the two regional models show differences in the local displacementof errors. In addition, in locations where the regional models are mutuallycorrelated, the aggregated mean squared error was found to be smaller, thatis a useful outcome of having several operational systems in the sameregion.

[学科分类] 海洋学与技术