Operational ocean forecasting in the Eastern Mediterranean: implementation and evaluation
[摘要] The Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and ObservingSystem (CYCOFOS) has been producing operational flow forecasts of thenortheastern Levantine Basin since 2002 and has been substantiallyimproved in 2005. CYCOFOS uses the POM flow model, and recently, within the frame ofthe MFSTEP project, the flow model was upgraded to use the hourlySKIRON atmospheric forcing, and its resolution was increased from 2.5 kmto 1.8 km. The CYCOFOS model is now nested in the ALERMO regional model from theUniversity of Athens, which is nested within the MFS basin model. The VariationalInitialization and FOrcing Platform (VIFOP) has been implemented to reduce the numerical transient processesfollowing initialization. Moreover, a five-day forecast is repeatedevery day, providing more detailed and more accurate information. Forecastresults are posted on the web page
http://www.oceanography.ucy.ac.cy/cycofos. The new, daily,high-resolution forecasts agree well with the ALERMO regional model. Theagreement is better and results more reasonable when VIFOP is used.Active and slave experiments suggest that a four-week active periodproduces realistic results with more small-scale features. For runs inSeptember 2004, biases with remote sensing sea surface temperature are less than 0.6°C with similar expressionsof the flow field present in both. Remotely-observed coastalupwelling south of Cyprus and advection of cool water from the Rhodes Gyre to the southern shores of Cyprus are alsomodeled. In situ observed hydrographic data from south of Cyprus are similar to thecorresponding forecast fields. Both indicate the relatively fresh subsurfaceAtlantic Water and a near-surface anticyclone south of Cyprus for August/September of2004 and September 2005. Plans for further model improvementinclude assimilation of observed XBT temperature profiles,CTD profiles from drifters and gliders, and CT data from the CYCOFOS oceanobservatory.
