Demography of European Honey Buzzards Pernis apivorus
[摘要] Wesetouttoexplorewhetherchangesinfecundityandsurvival(orboth)ofEuropeanHoneyBuzzardswereassociatedwithtrendsobservedinTheNetherlands.WeusedstandardizedmonitoringdataonnumbersandreproductionfromseveralstudyplotsinTheNetherlandsovertheperiodof1974–2005.SurvivalestimateswerebasedonrecoveriesofHoneyBuzzardsringedthroughoutEurope(collatedbyEURINGandindividualringingstations).Basedonthesevalueswecomputedtheannualpopulationgrowthratewithatimeinvariantpopulationmodel,andusedelasticityanalysistodetecttheparameterwiththestrongestinfluenceongrowthrate.Lambdawassmallerthan1,suggestingapopulationdecline,butconfidenceintervalsaroundlambdawererelativelywide.Elasticityofadultsurvivalwasmuchhigherthanofanyotherlifehistoryparameter,indicatingthatadultsurvivalhaspotentiallythegreatestimpactonannualpopulationgrowth.Becausedataonreproductionvariedstronglyweestimateda95%confidenceintervalforannualpopulationgrowthbybootstrappingthereproductiondata.Furthermore,weanalysedtheinfluenceofstochasticfoodavailability(i.e.waspabundance)onreproduction,andthroughthisdemographicfactor,onthepopulationtrend.Thestochasticmodelsuggestsaclearpopulationdecline,whichisconsistentwithobserveddeclinesacrossmuchofnorthernandwesternEurope(includingTheNetherlands).Forthegrowthrateλtoreach1,areproductiveoutputof1.16youngperpairwascalculatedtobenecessary,muchhigherthanthe0.53–0.88foundintwostudysitesinTheNetherlands.
[发布日期] [发布机构]
[效力级别] [学科分类] 动物科学
[关键词] Population Modeling [时效性]
