Application of the Kinematical Method to the Predictions of 1000mb Height and the Thickness

[摘要] Asimplified method for numerical prediction of the 1000 mb height change is presented. In this method the 1000mb height change ΔZ0 is obtained by ΔZ0=ΔZ5-Δh., where the height change ΔZ5 at 500 mb is obtained by barotropic graphical calculation, and the thickness change Δh for 500 mb-1000mb is obtained by simple kinematical extrapolation. In connection with the forecast of Δh, we modified the Estoque's method. The correlation coefficients between the calculated 1000mb height change and observed height change are O.7-0.8, showing fairly good results.

[学科分类] 大气科学