The Periodicity and Predictability of Climate : An Essay

[摘要] The atmospheric processes are usually presented through the phase of spatial waves and/or of temporal periods as units. Owing to the limited size of the Earth, temporal periods has more generality in identification of atmospheric processes with different dimensions. There are several categories of atmospheric periodicities different not only in dimension, but also in nature and causes of formation. That is the storeyed structure of atmospheric processes. For singling out the basical aspects of climatic processes in a given dimension, scale correspondence is an important working principle. Among the processes in different storeys there also exist close relationships. Generally speaking, the macro-phase is the background of micro-processes. A certain mutation of individual micro-process in its turn may imply some information about the transition of macro-phases. So the structural analysis of atmospheric processes gives the idea of their predictability in any time scale. That is the conditional quasi-predictability which would be beneficial to make the methodology of climate prediction more rationalized.

[学科分类] 大气科学