Short Range Forecasting over the United Kingdom using a Mesoscale Forecasting System

[摘要]  A non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction model has been implemented on a 15 km grid covering the United Kingdom to provide guidance to local weather forecasters in the period up to a day ahead. The model uses a turbulent kinetic energy formulation for vertical diffusion and carries cloud water as an additional variable. Account of the scales represented has been taken in the convection scheme. Radiation budgets are computed for the surface and the highest cloud top. Surface synoptic reports are incorporated to add mesoscale detail to the initial specification of boundary layer and cloud variables. Trials of the system have shown considerable skill in surface temperature and wind forecasts. The precipitation forecasts are superior to previous numerical models and show a realistic orographic enhancement. Some encouraging cloud and fog forecasts have been obtained.

[学科分类] 大气科学