On the Prediction of the Temperature in January in Shungtung, China

[摘要] For the purpose of p edicting mean air temperature in January at Chee-foo, China, the author investigated the correlation between the conditions of the continental high in October and the above mentioned element. As the arguments to express the condition of the high, two quantities were taken: the one is the mean air pressure at a certain station, and the other the position (latitude) of the centre of the high area in the isobaric chart drawn from mean air pressure in October at many observatories and stations in the Far-east. Tientsin, Chinan, and Hankow were examined taking them as the pressurestation, and it was found that Tientsin was the best. The regression equation was given as: Δt=-1.20Δp+0.348l+0.925 where Δt is the temperature deviation from normal in January at Chee-foo, Δp the pressure deviation from normal in October at Tientsin, and l the latitude in degrees counted from the parallel of 40° N and taking positive towards north.To my great disappointment, this result has three exceptional years in the whole period under the present inquiry, 1906-1932. They are 1906, 1913, and 1931 in which the sunspot-numbers in October, are all less than 10. Although such result must admittedly be valued less, in the remaining years other than the three, the correlation is so striking that it makes the author believe that the above equation may be used, with caution, for the year except those of sunspot minimum.

[学科分类] 大气科学