Track prediction of very severe cyclone ‘Nargis’ using high resolution weather research forecasting (WRF) model

[摘要] The recent very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) ‘Nargis’ over the Bay of Bengal caused widespread destruction over Myanmar after hitting the coast on 2 May 2008. The real time forecasting of the VSCS ‘Nargis’ was a very difficult task as it did not follow the normal westerly/northwesterly track. In the present study, a detailed diagnostic analysis of the system ‘Nargis’ is carried out initially to investigate the features associated with this unusual movement and subsequently the real time forecast of VSCS ‘Nargis’ using high resolution advanced version weather research forecasting (WRF) model is presented. The advanced research WRF model was run for 72 h at 27 km and 20 km resolutions with 28, 29, 30 April and 1 May as the initial conditions. The diagnostic study indicates that the recurvature of the system ‘Nargis’ was mainly associated with:upper level southerly/southwesterly steering wind at 200 hPa level associated with anticyclonic circulation over southeastern sector of the centre of the system,

[学科分类] 天文学(综合)

[关键词] Cyclone Nargis;WRF model;track forecast;Bay of Bengal;forecast error.