On the economies of developing countries.

[摘要] We investigate three facets of economies of developing countries that may hamper growth, namely heavy dependence on export of primary commodities, on a single industry, or on tourism based on nature. The first chapter examines the effects of uncertain terms-of-trade in a small, open economy. We develop a model whose terms-of-trade changes are functionally equivalent to productivity shocks. Twenty open economies were selected for the empirical examination of short-run implications. Unlike technology shocks, the terms-of-trade shocks were directly measurable. The simulations did not replicate the actual economies very well, although terms-of-trade was quite persistent, as is the case for technology shocks based on the Solow residual. While the Solow residual is usually highly correlated with output growth, the terms-of-trade growth was not. Our results suggest that technology shocks;; high correlation with output is more important than their persistence in determining model performance. The second chapter discusses how a catching-up economy can benefit from diversification in its industrial activities and how the government can assist the process. A theoretical model with the following features is formulated. By employing industrial policies and balancing the budget, the government alters relative prices as perceived by the private sector, so that a new industry comes into operation. Such policies result in inter-industry knowledge spillover and a higher output. We show that neutrality in the international trade regime achieved under import substitution and export promotion has different implications on output than that under free trade. The third chapter investigates the investment behavior of concessionaires in national parks. We consider a model with two kinds of visitors: nature oriented and crowd-and-action oriented. The investment pattern depends on the size of each group, cost of initial investment, the rate of depreciation, and sensitivity of each group;;s demand to facility construction (relative to price increase). Under both monopolist and oligopolistic-cooperation market conditions, we find that keeping the population of a critical species;; above the maximum sustainable yield level on the one hand, and construction of facilities on the other hand, are incompatible as management goals.

[发布机构] University of Michigan

[效力级别] Theory

[关键词] Economics;Theory;Economics