Probabilités, démographie et sciences sociales

[摘要] This paper considers the different approaches to probability, that has been developed from the XVIIth century, compared to the simultaneous development of social sciences. If the frequency-type approach, for which the probability is the mathematical limit to which the relative frequency of an outcome converges, the epistemological approach, for which the probability concerns the available evidence it is reasonable to have a degree of belief in the truth of a given proposition, seems to be more suitable for social sciences. A presentation and a discussion of these two approaches are made here, with numerous examples of application to social sciences.

[学科分类] 数学（综合）

[关键词] statistical inference;demography;frequence-type probability;epistemological probability;social sciences