The impacts of multilateral and bilateral trade agreements on agricultural trade in SACU

[摘要] International markets for agricultural products were characterised by,. amongst others,quantitative restrictions, tariff-based protection, border protection, non-tariff barriers, etebefore 1995. Likewise, agricultural sector in South Africa (SA) was also faced by similartrade distorting measures during the post-apartheid era. In response to globalisationchallenges, SA committed to move from protective to liberal trade regime in the agriculturalsector, as witnessed by its trade diplomacy engagements with the international community inthe context of multilateral, bilateral and/or regional approaches.At the multilateral level, SA has successfully implemented its commitments as negotiated interms of the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) during the Uruguay Round (UR) of GeneralAgreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) negotiations that gave birth to the World TradeOrganization (WTO). At the bilateral level SA 'has signed a Preferential Trade Agreement(PTA) with the European Union (EU) called the Trade, Development and Co-operationAgreement (TDCA) (better known as the EU-SA TDCA and includes a Free TradeAgreement). At the regional level, the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) memberstates including SA have signed a Protocol on Trade or a Regional Trade Agreement (RTA)with the non-SACU countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC).The main objective of the study was to measure the impact of trade agreements on theagricultural trade between SA and its trading partners. A gravity model using panel data was employed to analyze the ex-post impacts of the implementation of the trade treatments, i.e.WTO AaA, EU-SA TDCA and SADC Trade Protocol on agricultural trade flows between SAand its agricultural trading partners. Various statistical tests were undertaken to select thesuitable models for the datasets of total agricultural and selected agricultural products tradeflows between SA and its agricultural trading partners.After the statistical tests were undertaken, 189 feasible models in total were selected, of which. 161 were dynamic models and 28 were static models. Furthermore, 152 Fixed Effects (FE), 2Random Effects (RE) and 7 pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimators were found tobe efficient and suitable for the dynamic models; and 14 FE and 14 RE estimators were foundto be efficient and suitable for the static models. The highest number of selected dynamicmodels suggested that passed trade is the predictor for current trade. The per capita ODPs ofSA and of its trading partners, the real effective exchange rates and distance have also playeda significant and expected role in influencing agricultural trade flows between SA and itsagricultural trading partners.The results of the study have indicated that agricultural trade flows between SA and itsagricultural trade partners have responded positively to the implementation of WTO AaA.The implementation of EU-SA TDCA and SADC Trade Protocol during the first five years(for the period 2000 - 2004) have not delivered the expected results, as the majority ofagricultural trade flows between SA and EU countries as well as between SA and SADCcountries were not affected and some of the agricultural trade flows between SA and EUcountries as well as between SA and SADC countries were negatively affected. While themajority of agricultural trade flows between SA and EU countries as well as between SA andSADC countries were still not affected during the second five-year term (for the period 2005- 2009), there were some improvements due to the significant positive effects of the EU-SATDCA implementation on three agricultural trade flows (i.e. total agricultural trade, total cutflowers trade and total preserved fruits and nuts trade) as well as the significant positiveeffects of the SADC Trade Protocol implementation on four agricultural trade flows (i.e. totalagricultural exports, total agricultural trade, total cut flowers trade and total fruits andvegetable juices trade). However, the number of agricultural trade flows between SA andROW countries that have improved significantly for both periods were more than those of theEU and SADC countries, even though ROW countries did not have a trade agreement withSA.The implementation of the EU-SA TDCA and SADC Trade Protocol have created room forpotential increases of all the agricultural trade flows between SA and EU countries as well asbetween SA and SADC countries for both periods. However, some of these potentialincreases for the period 2000 - 2004 were diverted to the other markets. On average, duringthe implementation of the EU-SA TDCA for the period 2000 - 2004, about 0.44% ofagricultural exports, 0.96% of cut flowers exports and 0.77% of wine exports from SAdestined for EU were diverted to other markets Furthermore, about 2.01% of SA's wineimports that were supposed to have been soureed from the EU countries came from SA'sother wine trading partners; as well as the diversion of about 0.73% of total wine trade fromthe SA and EU market to either SA and other wine trading partner market or EU and otherwine trading partner market. Similarly, the implementation of the SADC Trade Protocol ledto diversion of agricultural exports (about 0.43%), cut flowers exports (about 0.93%), total cutflowers trade (about 0.92%), wine exports (about 0.73%), wine imports (about 1.45%) andtotal wine trade (about 0.35%) during the same period.\With regard to the implementation of the EU-SA TDCA and SADC Trade Protocol during theperiod 2005 - 2009, there was no proof of trade diversion for all agricultural trade flows,except that the was a trade creation for some of the agricultural trade flows between SA andEU countries as well as between SA and SADC countries. In the case of the EU-SA TDCA,there was trade creation on total agricultural exports, total agricultural trade, total preservedfruits and nuts trade and total wine trade. In the case of the SADC Trade Protocol, there wastrade creation on total agricultural trade, cut flowers exports and preserved fruits and nutsexports. In conclusion, these findings have clearly shown that tariff reductions alone are notpanacea to improve agricultural trade between SA and its major trading partners given the factthat EU-SA TDCA and SADC Trade Protocol were mainly characterized by tariff phasedown schedules.

[发布机构] University of the Free State