Understanding resilience pathways to climate change in a changing rangeland environment amongst pastoral societies of Afar Region, Ethiopia

[摘要] Change in climate and climate extremes are increasingly being acknowledged as a vital challenge topastoral production systems. The resilience of pastoral households to climate-induced shocks dependson the knowledge, skills of households and assets. The present study was conducted in the SouthernAfar region in Ethiopia to understand the resilience of pastoralists to climate change and variabilityin a changing rangeland environment. This study used the Mann-Kendall statistical test, the Sen'sslope estimator test and the Standardised Precipitation Index to analyse the trends of climate changeand variability and the annual and seasonal anomalies of rainfall, and assess the severity of droughtsin the study area. A household questionnaire survey and focus group discussion were employed tocollect primary data at household level. A total of 250 pastoral households were sampled usingstratified random sampling. The data obtained were analysed using descriptive statistics, principalcomponent analysis and linear regression, as well as Tobit models. In addition, satellite imageanalysis and field observation were used to analyse the land-use/land-cover changes in the SouthernAfar region.The results indicated a significant declining and increasing trend of Sugum (spring) season andKarma (summer) season rainfall, respectively in the study area. However, significant trend was notobserved for long-term annual rainfall. The coefficient of variation of seasonal rainfall ranged from25.2 to 42.7, indicating the strong variability of rainfall among the seasons. PrecipitationConcentration Index values also indicated a strong, irregular distribution of rainfall in the study areawhich was more irregular in the Gewane than in the Amibara district. Analysis of the StandardisedPrecipitation Index indicated that the total percentage of dry years (negative anomalies of rainfall)ranged from 53.3% (at Amibara) to 43.3% (at Gewane), implying more drought periods in theAmibara than the Gewane district for the observation periods. However, the percentages of extremedrought years were from 6.7% (at Amibara) to 10% (at Gewane). The research has confirmed asignificant increasing trend of monthly, seasonal and annual temperatures for the period 1983�?014.The results also indicated that the mean annual temperature of the Southern Afar has increased by0.67 °C dec�?which is almost twice the national increase. Due to the unreliability and erratic nature ofrainfall and recurrent droughts in the region, pasture and water availability became scarce andlivestock assets and productivity reduced to a high degree, the income and asset ownership ofhouseholds declined and the market price of livestock decreased, while the price of grain foodincreased. Due to deepening of poverty in the Southern Afar region, the informal safety net/mutualsupport system was eroded and individualism was increased. Furthermore, the pastoral householdspursued different strategies to adapt/cope with climate-induced shocks and stresses. The mostimportant strategies deployed by the local people included mixing livestock–crop farming, mobility, changing herd species composition and herd splitting, reduced consumption, remittance, cash-forwork,charcoal burning and firewood selling and food aid. The indigenous early warning system andmutual support among the extended families, neighbours and community were still significant toenhance the resilience of the pastoral households, though the indigenous early warning system wasnot integrated into the formal early warning system and the informal safety nets were eroded.The results further indicated that agro-pastoral households were more resilient than pastoralhouseholds to climate-induced shock. Furthermore, households in the Gewane district were moreresilient than those in the Amibara district. In addition, female-headed households were less resilientthan male-headed households. The findings further indicated that irrigation crop farming, livestockownership, education level, per capita income, mobility and herd splitting, herd composition change,labour, remittance, food aid, access to credit, market and formal early warning information had asignificant impact on the resilience of households to climate-induced shocks and stresses. The findingsof the household vulnerability analysis indicated that 28.8%, 53.6% and 17.6% of pastoralists werehighly vulnerable, moderately vulnerable and less vulnerable, respectively, to climate-induced shocksand stresses. The most important drivers that determine the vulnerability level of households weregender, age and marital status of the household, household size, educational level, extension services,farming experience, early warning information, livestock asset, irrigation farming, non-farm income,livestock mobility, radio ownership, distance to market and veterinary clinic, access to credit andagricultural inputs, the number of sick family members, the number of months with food shortagesduring the normal season of the year and number of dependents in the household. The results alsoindicated that substantial loss of grassland cover (64.5%), moderate decline of cultivated land (24%)and a dramatic increment of shrub and bushland cover (114.3%) occurred between 1985 and 2015.Consequently, access to rangeland resources and farmlands for pastoralists was highly restricted,putting the pastoral communities under increasing threat. The identified drivers of land use/coverchanges in the order of decreasing influence were the invasion of Prosopis juliflora, climate change,and variability, government intervention, and population growth.If enhancing the resilience of pastoral households is the final aim, the government and other partnerorganisations should focus more on long-term strategic livelihood interventions than on emergencyrelief interventions by equipping the local people with the capability to manage and respond toclimate-induced shocks and stresses in the early stage of the crisis. Furthermore, the decision makersshould develop a policy for controlling P. juliflora and ensuring accessibility of the rangeland tograzing and strengthening of the customary institution for effective management of rangelandresources.

[发布机构] University of the Free State