Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability: a case study of emerging farmers in the eastern Free State, South Africa

[摘要] English: A research study on vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability was conducted among emerging farmers in Tshiame Ward of Maluti-A-Phofung Municipality in the Free State Province of South Africa. The research aim was to assess the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate variability and to identify the adaptation measures that emerging farmers use to cope with the problem. Primary data was collected by means of a semi-structured questionnaire to 19 farmers in the Ward. The data were captured and analysed using SPSS, to obtain the frequency tables. Microsoft Excel 2007 was used for statistical analysis and to plot the regression graphs while the Instat Software was used in the analysis of climate data to determine the dry spells, onset and offset of dates and the calculation of the Crop Performance Indices. The analysis revealed that farmers regard climate variability as a phenomenon taking place in Tshiame Ward. When farmers were asked about the cause of climate variability, some were unsure about their own answers though many of them were able to relate their answers to what is happening in their immediate environment. In order to cope with the impact of climate variability, farmers in Tshiame Ward have adopted a number of practices such as the use of drought and heat tolerant seeds and mixed cropping systems. These practices are based on the already existing knowledge as well as the perceived changes in climatic conditions. The statistical analysis of climate data revealed that some of the views held by some farmers�?regarding climate variability are in contrast with the results shown by the analysis. The study concludes that the farmers who were able to perceive the change that is taking place in their environment were better able to implement effective adaptation measures and were consequently better-able to sustain their agricultural operations. The fact that farmers were aware or familiar with climate variability, as well as its associated impact can be related to the ongoing project that is being undertaken by Agricultural Research Council, where weather stations have been installed on farms in order to develop the capacity to monitor climate variability in the area.

[发布机构] University of the Free State