Choosing between agricultural development projects in the North West province: a multiple criteria analysis

[摘要] Large amounts of taxpayers' money have been invested in agricultural developmentinitiatives in South Africa, but unfortunately most of these initiatives have not beensuccessful. This has increased pressure on government departments to deliver on theirpromises, as more and more productive agricultural land has been virtually taken out ofproduction. Most of the past development initiatives have simply become poverty traps,which has added to the economic hardship already experienced by most people in the ruralregions of the North West Province.Based on the afore-mentioned, the need for a framework or decision support system that willimprove the success of agricultural development in the province is acknowledged. Severalstudies have concluded that the development of workable business plans can serve as a meansto improve the success of agricultural development, provided that it gives a guideline thatwill incorporate policies, institutions and mobilise resources that will improve the success ofagricultural development.Thus, the first part of the study entails the identification of agricultural opportunities in theprovince. A detailed review of the study area provides the basis for the identification ofagricultural opportunities in the province. In addition, field workshops that were arrangedaccording to the SWOT methodology were held in each of the local municipalities. This wasdone to obtain a better perspective of the potential opportunities as well as factors inhibitingagricultural development in the province. The workshops were also used to determine whichbusiness concepts could be employed to successfully exploit the identified opportunities.From this, a business plan for each opportunity could be drafted.However, workable development plans can only improve the success of agriculturaldevelopment once they are implemented. This turns the attention to another dimension ofagricultural development, with government that are often faced with strict budget constraints.Thus, budget allocations to agricultural development initiatives should be done in a way thatwill yield the highest economic, social and environmental returns. A multiple criteriaanalysis (MeA) model was developed in the second part of the study to assist governmentwith budget allocation towards the identified opportunities.Following the principles of the MCA, the identified opportunities are ranked according to aset objective i.e. to improve the welfare of the province and at the same time conserve thenatural resources of the province for future use. From the results, it is concluded that beefproduction is most likely to yield the highest return in terms of the set objective, followed byvegetables and goat meat production.It could be concluded that MCA is a decision support tool that can assist government in itsbudget allocation decisions. Moreover, the identified agricultural opportunities namely GoatHotel, Milk Cow Hotel, Goat Meat, Broilers, Beef Production, Animal Feed, Eco tourism,Veldt Management, Taung Irrigation Scheme, Vegetable Management, Grain Production andPerennial Crops are likely to improve the success of agricultural development in the province.

[发布机构] University of the Free State